Even with a number of injuries facing the Toronto Raptors ahead of Game 2 against the Philadelphia 76ers, the spread is looking a little too lofty. You can't count them out even if Scottie Barnes can't play. We expect a better effort in our betting picks.
The Toronto Raptors will try to slow down the rampaging Philadelphia 76ers when the 2022 NBA Playoffs resume on Monday, April 18.
Is there anything a wounded Raptors team can do to overcome the James Harden and Joel Embiid pick and roll onslaught? Read on for our detailed analysis and NBA betting picks and predictions for Game 2 of Raptors vs. 76ers.
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The spread opened with Philadelphia getting a strong edge at -6.5 points, and as more news came down about Toronto’s various injury woes, it has since moved to -7. The total opened around 220.5 at most books before shifting down to 217.5 by this writing.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Predictions made on 4/18/2022 at 1:20 a.m. ET. Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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• Location: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA • Date: Monday, April 18, 2022 • Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET • TV: TNT
Raptors: Scottie Barnes SF (Doubtful), Thaddeus Young PF (Doubtful), Gary Trent Jr. SG (Doubtful), Khem Birch C (Questionable). 76ers: None. Find our latest NBA injury reports.
The Over is 4-0 in the Raptors' last 4 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. 76ers.
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
What was projected by many as the most likely upset of the first round has swiftly become a battle for survival as the Raptors will try desperately to avoid falling down 0-2 against the 76ers tonight. Not only did Toronto get blown off the court 131-111 in the Game 1 loss, but the Raptors are also potentially down three players from the opener.
The most consequential potential loss is that of Rookie of the Year candidate Scottie Barnes, who suffered a nasty ankle injury that leaves his series status in doubt. Gary Trent Jr. is also doubtful with a non-COVID illness, and Thad Young hyperextended the thumb on his shooting hand.
If playoff series are wars of attrition, then the 76ers have clearly drawn first blood. Toronto focusing so much on James Harden and Joel Embiid allowed Tyrese Maxey to explode for 38 points, and Tobias Harris also got loose for 26 points on 14 shots.
But all is not lost for the Raptors, either. Their mistakes in Game 1 were glaring, but so was their misfortune. They suffered critical early fouls that hurt their defensive scheme, including their ability to effectively swarm Embiid.
Philadelphia played an immensely disciplined game, committing just three turnovers, which is tied for the fewest in a playoff game ever. This was a huge problem for the Raptors because they are a transition-focused team that thrives on creating basketball chaos. This was supposed to be a matchup advantage for Toronto as the 76ers are a poor transition defensive team. The 76ers allowed more points off of transition opportunities than all but Atlanta, Portland, and Houston per Cleaning the Glass — or, in other words, three of the five worst defenses in the NBA.
Another critical element of Game 1 unlikely to repeat was the rebounding. The 76ers, despite Embiid’s prowess, are not a good rebounding team. They were the league’s worst offensive rebounding team during the regular season, grabbing just 22.9% of their missed shots.
The Raptors, meanwhile, were the second-best offensive rebounding team in the association, posting a 31.1% offensive rebounding rate. In Game 1, their identities flipped, and Philadelphia dominated the glass. Given what we know about these rosters, that’s unlikely to happen again.
The combination of the 76ers offense scoring so frequently, rebounding so far above their heads, and their historic lack of turnovers dried up the Raptors' opportunities to attack.
The 76ers had a commendable game plan but it would be foolish to count on lightning striking twice. Toronto always bounces back after a big loss, and they’re 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 125 points in the previous contest.
Nick Nurse will have something cooked up for Maxey and will renew the team's commitment to eating the offensive glass and swarming Embiid off the bounce. Philadelphia will turn the ball over a normal amount, and the Raptors should stay in contact.
Prediction: Raptors +7.5 (-110 at bet365)
Everything about part two of Raptors vs. 76ers screams Over. Not only are the 76ers on a streak (the Over has hit in each of their last 5 games), but when the Raptors rebound after a big loss, they see a dramatic increase in their offensive output. To wit, the Over is 4-0 in the Raptors' last 4 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points.
This is a prideful group led by stars leftover from its championship core in Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet, who will be looking to avenge their Game 1 performance. Whether their shots fall or not, they are going to run the ball and make the 76ers earn every stop on the move.
And while it would be hard for Philadelphia to improve on their offensive performance from Saturday when the 76ers scored a staggering 151.8 points per possession, it was also a remarkably slow-paced game. Saturday's game featured just 84 possessions for either side, well below their season averages of about 100.
The overall efficiency will drop, but even a moderately increased pace points to the Over.
Prediction: Over 217.5 (-105 at Betway)
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A lot has been made of James Harden's struggles in a 76ers uniform. He is certainly having trouble breaking the paint and beating his man at the rim more than he used to, even if his free throw rate has rebounded after an early dip. And though his step-back jumper is still a weapon, he's reluctant to break it out in the volume that first made him a superstar.
But one thing that just keeps getting better is Harden's game as a facilitator. It’s his ability to pass through tight seams, on the move, with either hand, that has taken Philadelphia's offense to previously unrealized heights. There is no tenable answer to a Harden and Embiid pick and roll. VanVleet will body Harden and make him work, but he’s still too small to disrupt Harden’s vision.
His 10.3 assist average on the season includes a lot of games where, frankly, he wasn’t trying all that hard. But a locked-in Harden is a true floor general. He’s averaging 13.4 dimes in his last five games, including 14 in Game 1.
This line is simply the best value on the board for Raptors vs. Sixers.
Pick: James Harden Over 10.5 assists (-115 at FanDuel)
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